For NFL teams, the Super Bowl is the ultimate prize. However, only one team can take the Vince Lombardi Trophy. For the other 31 teams, they should benchmark their performance to expectations. For example, was your win-loss record better than predicted? Did the coach (manager) make the best decisions to prepare the team and place a plan to be successful? In football, odds makers explicitly let General Managers and teams know what they expect—odds.
In investing, benchmarks can be a measure of success. The problem with comparing portfolios to a stated benchmark is the portfolio and the benchmark may have distinct “style factors” (Value, Core, Defensive, Momentum, etc.). Even if a manager states their process is bottom-up, they still deliver performance influenced by factors.
Aapryl compares a portfolio to its “clone” or factor profile to distinguish skill from the “luck” of being in the factor currently in favor. In football this is comparable to the spread–the difference in points between teams to make the bet even. The Los Angeles Rams are a 3.5-point favorite over the Cincinnati Bengals. So, if the Bengals lose by 2 points, they are better than expected. The players and the coaches executed a plan that beat expectations.
If a portfolio manager beats their “factor clone” by 1%, then the skill added is 1%. This is a more effective and fair measure of a portfolio manager’s value add. Aapryl’s proprietary scoring allows manager research teams to determine which manager delivers persistent skill. Aapryl also uses machine learning (think artificial intelligence) to give analysts the probability a manager will outperform its peers over the next 3 years. That makes it easier to “bet” on the best of the best across your platform.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have odds like these three years in advance for your portfolio teams?
BTW-The Cincinnati Bengals were only supposed to win 6.5 games. Only the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans had a worse probability of winning the Super Bowl.
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Super Bowl Odds and Season Wins |
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Team |
Super Bowl |
Season Wins |
Actual |
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Kansas City Chiefs |
450 |
12.5 |
12 |
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
600 |
11.5 |
13 |
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Buffalo Bills |
1100 |
11.5 |
11 |
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Los Angeles Rams |
1200 |
10.5 |
12 |
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Baltimore Ravens |
1400 |
10.5 |
8 |
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Green Bay Packers |
1400 |
10.5 |
13 |
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San Francisco 49ers |
1400 |
10.5 |
10 |
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Cleveland Browns |
1600 |
10.5 |
8 |
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Tennessee Titans |
2000 |
9.5 |
12 |
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Seattle Seahawks |
2500 |
9.5 |
7 |
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New England Patriots |
3000 |
9.5 |
10 |
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Los Angeles Chargers |
3000 |
9.5 |
9 |
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Dallas Cowboys |
3000 |
9.5 |
12 |
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Indianapolis Colts |
3500 |
8.5 |
9 |
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Arizona Cardinals |
3500 |
8.5 |
11 |
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Miami Dolphins |
4000 |
9.5 |
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Minnesota Vikings |
4000 |
9.5 |
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New Orleans Saints |
4000 |
9.5 |
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Washington WFT |
4000 |
8.5 |
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Pittsburgh Steelers |
5000 |
8.5 |
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Denver Broncos |
5000 |
8.5 |
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Chicago Bears |
6600 |
7.5 |
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Las Vegas Raiders |
8000 |
7.5 |
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Atlanta Falcons |
8000 |
7.5 |
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New York Giants |
8000 |
7.5 |
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Carolina Panthers |
8000 |
7.5 |
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Philadelphia Eagles |
10000 |
6.5 |
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Jacksonville Jaguars |
12500 |
6.5 |
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New York Jets |
15000 |
6.5 |
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Cincinnati Bengals |
15000 |
6.5 |
10 |
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Detroit Lions |
25000 |
5.5 |
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Houston Texans |
30000 |
4.5 |
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Get the data Created with Datawrapper |
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Super Bowl odds and season win totals from BetMGM |
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